IMF Warns Gulf Conflict Could Deepen Food Insecurity Across Africa

The International Monetary Fund has warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions linked to the Gulf conflict could significantly worsen food insecurity across Nigeria and other African countries, threatening recent economic gains in the region.

In a recent assessment, the IMF noted that Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with strong momentum, recording its fastest growth in a decade at 4.5 percent in 2025. This growth was supported by improved investment flows, easing inflation, and gradual reductions in public debt across several economies.

However, the Fund cautioned that the current conflict could disrupt that progress by driving up global commodity prices, tightening financial conditions, and forcing vulnerable countries into difficult fiscal adjustments.

According to Abebe Aemro Selassie, a prolonged crisis could reduce regional output, increase inflation, and place additional strain on already fragile economies, particularly those reliant on food and energy imports.

The IMF highlighted that rising fertiliser and shipping costs, combined with climate shocks such as floods and droughts, are compounding risks to food systems across the continent. A sharp increase in global food prices, it warned, could push millions more people into hunger and worsen malnutrition among children.

These concerns align with findings from the Global Report on Food Crises, which shows that acute hunger levels remain critically high worldwide due to conflict, economic instability, and declining humanitarian support.

The report estimates that hundreds of millions of people faced severe food insecurity in 2025, with vulnerable regions in Africa expected to remain under pressure in 2026. Countries such as Nigeria, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are projected to see further deterioration, driven by insecurity, inflation, and weak access to essential resources.

The IMF also warned that declining foreign aid is removing a key safety net for many African economies, particularly fragile states that rely heavily on external support for healthcare and food systems.

Beyond immediate interventions, the Fund stressed the importance of structural reforms, including strengthening governance, improving the business environment, and deepening regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area to build long-term resilience.

Overall, the warning underscores growing concerns that overlapping shocks from conflict and climate change to economic pressures, could intensify hunger across Africa and undermine stability if not addressed urgently.