Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Low As US–Iran Talks Begin Amid Fragile Ceasefire

Ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below normal levels despite a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, as uncertainty continues to weigh on global energy markets.

Data from shipping intelligence firms showed that traffic through the strategic waterway is operating at less than 10 per cent of usual capacity. Only seven vessels reportedly passed through the strait within a 24-hour period, compared to an average of about 140 daily, leaving hundreds of ships stranded in the Gulf.

The disruption, triggered by the conflict that began in late February, has cut global oil supply by an estimated 20 per cent, marking one of the most severe supply shocks in history. As a result, oil prices have remained volatile, rising again after briefly dipping below $100 per barrel.

Despite the ceasefire, Iran has tightened its control over maritime activity, directing vessels to coordinate with its authorities and reroute through waters near Larak Island due to security concerns, including potential naval mines.

The truce, announced by Donald Trump, is expected to pave the way for negotiations between Washington and Tehran, scheduled to begin in Islamabad. The talks are reportedly based on a proposal put forward by Iran aimed at resolving key areas of conflict.

However, analysts warn that the two-week ceasefire may not be enough to restore normal shipping operations, as backlogs persist and many shipping companies remain cautious about resuming transit through the strait.

Market uncertainty has also been fuelled by continued hostilities in the region. Renewed Israeli strikes in Lebanon have raised fears that the fragile truce could collapse, potentially prolonging disruptions to global oil flows.

Experts say geopolitical risks are likely to keep a premium on oil prices, as traders await clearer signals on the outcome of US-Iran negotiations and the long-term security of one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.